Monday, December 19, 2005

The Iranian regime will never change by itself

An interesting post on LiberoPensiero, comparing today's Iran to communist USSR (translation mine):

Today's Iran plays the same role once rendered by the USSR, although on a smaller scale. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the whole global structure of the totalitarian left collapsed with it. Similarly, if Iran's Islamic Republic collapses, it is likely that the whole islamofascist structure would too.

If this is true, and I tend to agree with it, then Teheran's regime has no choice but to behave as it does, to say what it says and to support terrorism all over the map in order to survive. Having said that, the choices for the civilized world are then extremely limited: either promote a popular revolt that would erase the theocracy (but time is running out) or provoke regime change by external means, now. If the first step towards this objective is a referral to the Security Council so that sanctions can be imposed to Iran, so be it, but the West should be well aware that no negotiations, threats or enticements will ever budge Teheran from its positions as this would amount - for the regime - to political (and religious) suicide. In fact, any dialogue with the EU and/or the US emboldens it.

Even if Ahmadinejad gets out of the picture (see preceding post), and the regime offers the world a less unpleasant and undiplomatic side, the West should not believe for a moment that Teheran's aims and objectives have mellowed. In a way, in fact, it could be more dangerous as it would give an excuse to some countries (Russia, China, France, Germany) to pretend to appreciate Iran's government improved attitude (in order to do business with them) and insist on endless and useless negotiations while the mullahs develop their nuclear program at their leisure.

, ,

No comments: