Bird flu

If (or should I say when) this pandemic hits with the devastating force predicted by many, only the countries better prepared to confront it will survive relatively unscathed.

The UK seems to be taking things seriously:

THE government is to mount an exercise to help emergency services prepare for any potential bird flu pandemic that could kill thousands of people in Britain.

According to the health department’s contingency plan, the healthcare system could be overwhelmed. Estimates of deaths in the first six weeks of the outbreak range from 20,000 up to 710,000, after which the disease would begin to subside. About 20m people could suffer serious breathing problems.

From Future Pundit, the bad news first:

Neil Ferguson, a professor at the Imperial College in London and lead author of the Nature paper says that if the pandemic happens half the world's population could be infected within a year.

Then the good news:

The American team also found that early intervention with antivirals and quarantines has the potential to stop a pandemic.

Some more good news:

Government scientists say they have successfully tested in people a vaccine that they believe can protect against the strain of avian influenza that is spreading in birds through Asia and Russia.

The key then is prevention, development of vaccines/antibiotics, adequate stocks of them, prompt identification of outbreaks and quarantining of early victims. In short:

…political will and resources to execute the containment strategy.

Bird flu