Per absurdum

The war against the insurgency in Iraq is continuing. Violence, intimidation, killing of innocents and coalition soldiers goes on with ups and downs, but the civil war that Al Zarqawi so much desires does not seem to be on the cards. What must be worrying the al Quaeda leaders at the moment is the constitutional process reaching its goal (however imperfect) in August and the following December elections; this will not stop the violence (in fact it might increase it), but each event will be another nail in the coffin of terrorism in general. Strangely enough, it has been the terrorists and their senseless massacres to show the whole world (more than Bush speeches) the importance of a democratic Iraq and its meaning for the entire Middle East. Terrorists will now have to go for broke (a recent rumor gives Bin Laden on the march toward Iraq) and hope, at best, for a continued “resistance”, with the undesired side effect of keeping the coalition forces in Iraq indefinitely.

Even if the terrorists enjoy some support from disgruntled Sunnis and Saddamites, they have completely alienated the population and must know that this is no way to lead a successful insurgency. Furthermore, they live under the constant threat that the foreign support they receive could cease abruptly; Syria and/or Iran might abandon them to their destiny if, because of increased pressure from the US or a perceived advantage, it would fit their agendas.

Their timing is lousy too: when, just after the 7/7 attacks in London all people in bad faith were resuscitating the “leave Iraq to avoid attacks” mantra and all people in good faith were seriously thinking about it, boom!, they go and blow up Sharm el Sheik killing mostly innocent Egyptians. Furthermore, if with the London bombings they had hoped to weaken Blair and bend the UK like they did Spain, they grossly miscalculated. In fact, the reaction of Mr. Blair was almost one of relief; it was high time – and now I can do it, he seemed to be thinking – to pass legislation that would effectively protect the country and do away with misconceived multiculturalist approaches to integration. In addition, Europe seems to have been waiting for exactly this move by Blair, and France, Italy and Germany are speedily catching up.

It would appear that, contrary to current opinion that equals terrorists to “evil geniuses”, they have an uncanny tendency to shoot themselves in the foot.

Following 9/11, as I was watching Diplomatic License on CNN, a reporter by the unforgettable name of James Bond came on air and asked to comment on the recent events, said: “Whatever happens next, this is certainly the end of Islam as a political system”. Mr.Bond never again appeared on that network (CNN is in part owned by the Saudi royal family), but his statement struck me as one of the most poignant I have heard regarding that tragedy and its consequences (he now writes for a British newspaper).

Al Quaeda, its leaders and followers, far from being closer to the caliphate they dream, have triggered a long overdue and now inevitable reform of Islam. In fact this is the target al Quaeda has unwittingly shown us, and this is what we must aim for.

Terrorism