Wednesday, September 21, 2005

Persian games

Europe and the US are getting tired of being taken for fools but Iran continues to threaten all sorts of reprisals in case it is referred to the Security Council to face possible sanctions:

If they want to speak with Iran with the language of force, Iran will have no choice, in order to preserve its technological achievements, to get out of the framework of the NPT (Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty) and the additional protocol and resume (uranium) enrichment," Larijani told a news conference. The protocol calls for open inspections of atomic facilities.

Despite its bullish attitude, Iran must realize that North Korea for all its bluffing and playing for time, might be close to a complete collapse, avoided until now thanks to China’s support, and that, if and when it happens, Iran would be even more isolated (Syria is not much use these days).

Ahmadinejad international debut has been a very mixed bag; one had the impression that he was addressing the Iranian people more than the UN. Probably this was the case as the situation in the country is extremely tense.

There are two certainties in this impasse between Iran and the EU and US: one, that Iran wants a nuclear weapon, the civilian use is a ruse and the military are heavily involved in the project; two, that Iran will be referred to the Security Council when the time is right, and the time will be when Russia will be convinced that a nuclear Iran is not in its geopolitical interests. This could happen sooner rather than later, perhaps with a little help from the CIA: it might be embarrassing for Putin to explain to the russian people why he likes Iran so much if details of Iran involvement with al Qaeda in Chechnya or its covert cooperation with Pyongyang were to become public.

When the sanctions will kick in, Iran will have to capitulate and accept the conditions imposed by the IAEA. Hopefully, this will encourage and give new energy to the simmering revolt against the regime.

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